According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the Southwest Monsoon is expected four days in advance as early as 27th of May 2022. It will also be the quickest since 2017. Normally, the Kerala monsoon starts during 1st of June every-year. After months of scorching sultry summer, the news is as breezy and as cool as the monsoon.
However, IMD’s forecast has a model error of plus or minus four days. So in all likelihood, rains would drench the Kerala coast no later than June 1. That’s just a week to a fortnight for the onset of the monsoon season.
On Friday, private weather forecaster Skymet also came up with its monsoon forecast, predicting rains by May 26 with a model error of plus or minus three days.
Rains arriving in the Central, Northern, and Western parts of India on time will boost the sowing of Kharif crops. Also, good remunerative returns from the just concluded Rabi harvest will serve as an added motivation to Indian farmers.
The other good news is both IMD and Skymet have predicted ‘normal’ rains for 2022. That’s certainly a piece of encouraging news for our farmers. However, there are indications that the first half of the monsoon season (June and July 2022) will receive better rainfall than the second half. And now that’s a cause of concern. Because the quantum of rain in July and August is significant from an agricultural perspective.
According to IMD, the Long Period Average (LPA) for June-September 2022, calculated for all regions across India, would be ‘normal’ at 99 percent (LPA). Skymet, too, predicts ‘normal’ LPA at 98 percent. Both the agencies have a model error of plus or minus five percent.
IMD’s media release said La Nina conditions are prevailing above the equatorial Pacific region. And as per the latest climate models, it will last even during the monsoonal months. It also added that the neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) present over the Indian Ocean is likely to continue till the southwest monsoon season begins.