In close to a decade, India’s political landscape has undergone a significant change. It saw the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on one side and the fall of the Congress and Communist parties on the other side. The other crucial change is regional parties are emerging stronger in the states with decisive victories. Then the Aam Aadmi Party’s success in Punjab after Delhi.
Parties with a double-digit tally
On the national level, if the current trend continues, BJP might win the next Lok Sabha general elections in 2024. If it did win, it would be a third term for the party after its two successive victories in 2014 and 2019. Currently, the party has 300 seats in the 543-member assembly. The Indian National Congress (INC) is at a distant second with 53 seats. Then we have the regional parties: DMK – 24, AITC – 23, YSRCP – 22, SHS – 19, JD)(U) – 16, BJD – 12, and BSP – 10, in double-digit tallies.
A possible third front for the 2024 election
The other possible scenario is a non-congress third front in center with multiple regional parties. On the eve of the 2024 elections, a new pre-poll alliance could emerge with regional satraps leading the battle for the throne together. They could also strike a post-poll tie-up to form the Government if the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP falls short of the majority. But, how far this alliance will be successful and how long it will last is doubtful. Its life span could be short like the United Front government (under H. D. Deve Gowda and I. K. Gujral), between 1996 and 1998. The apparent reason is we have too many regional leaders desiring the top post.
The plight of Congress party
Then what will happen to the Grand old party, Congress? The party’s ability to negotiate with allies would depend on its winnability in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. Failure of the Congress party in the states, discontent among senior leaders, and the much-debated issue of leadership are weighing down the party. Parties like AITC and TRS are waiting to take over the spot of INC and lead an alliance to compete with the NDA. In fact, some of these parties are trying to contest in other states as well, to expand their footprint outside their home state. So if the Congress party falls from its second spot, the next in line would be any regional party.
The regional party that might come second
Let’s see this first. The top five states, in terms of the number of Lok Sabha seats, are Uttar Pradesh (80), Maharashtra (48), West Bengal (42), Bihar (40), and Tamil Nadu (39).
UP is like a bastion of the BJP now and there are no strong regional players there. In Maharashtra, the government is led by the alliance Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which includes the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), the Shiv Sena (SHS), and the Indian National Congress (INC). So no single party is going to sweep the entire 48 seats.
Bihar again has multiple players, with BJP and JD (U) in the ruling alliance. No regional party is in a position now to outwit others to secure maximum Lok Sabha seats. In Tamil Nadu, the ruling DMK is in a poll pact with the Congress and communist parties. So it has to part with some of the Lok Sabha seats to its alliance partners.
Whereas, in West Bengal, there will be a tight contest between AITC and the BJP. However, there could be a favorable tilt towards the AITC in West Bengal if CM Mamata Banerjee were to lead a front. In such a scenario, AITC might come second on the national level.
The dark horse in the race
The Aam Aadmi Party could emerge as the dark horse in the race if it manages to sweep the entire Lok Sabha seats in Delhi (7) and Punjab (13) and secures a few in other states. Again, it’s going to depend on BJP’s poll time position in the states and whether or not AAP is part of a potential National-level Alliance.
So, in the event of the Congress party falling further, the second place might go to a regional party. It could be the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) or even the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).